Significantly heavy rains continue over southeastern Africa, while dryness develops across the southwest.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable for tropical cyclone development in Mozambique Channel.
1) Although good rains were observed over the Greater Horn of Africa during late November and early December, the delayed onset of the October-December rainy season combined with an erratic distribution of rains during the season had already negatively impacted ground conditions in northern Kenya and southern Somalia.
2) Insufficient rains since the beginning of October have led to dryness and delayed planting throughout eastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi and southern Tanzania. However, conditions have continued to improve due to favorable rainfall since late December.
3) While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the eastern parts of the country have accumulated below-average rains, affecting agricultural conditions in the region. Suppressed rains forecast next week are expected to worsen ground conditions.
4) A tropical low situated in the Mozambique Channel may intensify into a cyclone during the next seven days. Regardless of cyclone formation, heavy amounts of precipitation and high winds are forecast which may trigger flooding for several anomalously wet coastal areas and interior areas of Madagascar.
5) While many local areas in western Madagascar received a favorable increase in rainfall recently, large seasonal moisture deficits and unfavorable ground conditions remain in the Toliary province of the country. Below-average rains are expected in the region for the upcoming outlook period.
6) In recent weeks, significantly heavy rainfall has been received over parts of northern Zimbabwe, western and central Mozambique. In southern Malawi, these rains have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. The excess moisture also elevates the risk for downstream river inundation along the Shire, Licungo, Zambezi, Mazoe, Pungue, and Save Rivers in the region.