Heavy rains fell over saturated areas of southeastern Africa.
Rainfall deficits grow over dry areas in southern Zimbabwe, central/southern Tanzania, South Africa, and Namibia.
1) Since mid-December, consistent and significantly heavy rainfall has been received over southeastern Africa. In parts of southern Malawi, as well as, central and northern Mozambique, these rains have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. The excess moisture also has elevated the risk for downstream river inundation in rivers in the region. Above-average rain forecast for the next week will keep flooding risks elevated.
2) Since late-December, a sharp reduction in seasonal precipitation has resulted in mid-seasonal dryness across several parts of southern Angola, northern Namibia into the Caprivi Strip region and the Ghanzi and Ngamiland districts of Botswana. The continuation of suppressed rainfall is expected to negatively impact developing crops.
3) An extended period of poorly distributed rainfall has resulted in developing mid-season dryness across parts of eastern Botswana, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique. Continued dryness is forecast for some areas, and may result in deteriorating ground conditions and wilting crops in the region.
4) Abundant rains over the past thirty-days as well as the impacts from tropical disturbances in the Mozambique Channel have resulted in widespread flooding across the country which has damaged crops and infrastructure, displaced tens of thousands and increased the risk for water-borne disease outbreaks, especially in the capital of Antananarivo. Heavy rains are forecast for the next week which will kept flooding risks elevated.
5) A prolonged dry spell over the past thirty-days has led to thirty-day rainfall totals below the 15th percentile over a large area in central South Africa and bordering areas in southern Botswana. The lack of rain could negatively impact maize crops in the Free State and North West provinces of South Africa. With little rain forecast for the next week, dryness is expected to deepen.